2022年的持续和新兴模式

辞旧迎新, 一集结束了，充满希望的期待, 传统的时间是既反思又期待的吗. Each year Urban Land Institute and PWC (formerly Price Waterhouse Coopers) compile an extensive study of Commercial Real Estate entitled 房地产的新兴趋势. Their methodology is an in-depth survey of all real estate sectors through interviews and surveys of the top minds and best businesses. I would like to use this as the basis of January’s newsletter, providing you a national overview.

“Both the economy and the real estate markets have held up better than I would have thought.这是他们的开场白. The past two years “presented the property sector with an unending series of challenges and enormous, rapid shifts” but these actually revealed the surprising resilience of the property operators in response to these threats. Flexibility to quickly and effectively adapt has been the key trait that has come to the forefront and lead to the quickest recession ever followed by the strongest recovery ever, 尽管大流行的影响挥之不去. 这已经导致了美国.S. property markets to become even more sought after by both local and international investors. The economy has now recovered to pre-covid levels and growth is forecast to reach the highest level ever in 2022.

建筑和负担能力

American business owners and workers have all had to reevaluate their priorities. Work From 365bet苹果客户端 (WFH) means firms will be leasing less space in the future leading to uncertainty for office developers. Older buildings have become obsolete and will be expensive or impossible to renovate. 在圣安东尼奥, the costs of land and construction materials have driven the costs for office, retail and multifamily to the limits and beyond what tenants can afford to pay. Affordable rental housing is usually older Class B and Class C apartments, 但你不能建B级公寓, 只有a级, 这些都是负担不起的. Only tax abatements from cities can put a dent in the affordability problem.

工业

工业建筑, 然而, continues to boom because of the increased need to fill out the last mile of the logistics’ supply chain – delivery to the home. 当地的空置率下降到只有5%.3%, 自2018年第四季度以来的最低水平, 根据NAI Partners, 尽管工业空间供应不断增加. 今年已经交付了近200万平方英尺, nearly 10-million square feet are under construction and 3-million is in the pipeline for 2022.

住宅

Our homes used to be simply the place we eat, sleep and keep our stuff. 突然, 他们成了我们孩子的学校, 你和你的配偶的工作场所, 电影院, 健身房，甚至是我们购物的地方, 现在在线. 我们的家现在可以搬到一个更遥远的, 较便宜的社区, less crime ridden and maybe even in a state (like Texas) without income taxes and lockdowns.

办公室

办公室是变动最大的房地产形式.  We are still uncertain what the future will look like – the immediate past of WFH on Zoom? 或者更遥远的过去，那时我们每天都在一起?

一位业主说, “People can’t advance the shared consciousness and the culture of their firms without people physically in the office, and people can’t grow their careers without physically being around people in their office.” But workers really like hanging out at the house, and not having to get dressed for a long commute. The likely outcome will be a hybrid work place, depending on the company and their business. 年轻员工需要更多的指导, 培训和角色塑造, 但他们更精通技术，不太受办公环境的束缚. 事实上，他们将WFH进一步推进到“随时随地工作”(WFA)。. 年长的员工是在办公室长大的，他们对办公室非常适应, but are usually less comfortable with technology that frees them from the office. 看到问题了吗? 然后, 今年有一场大辞职, where many workers decided they could find a new and better place to work and quit their current jobs. There is a war for talent now, from the C-Suite to the construction workers. 也, 有些人决定干脆退出劳动力市场, 就像那些觉得需要在家上学的妈妈一样, 或者其他人提前退休. On top of this, it is projected that nationally 1-million new office jobs will be created in 2022. This creates a very complex and uncertain picture for sever new years to come.

在圣安东尼奥, we have a significant number tenants in the health services field and so very dependent on working from office space, 不在家的时候. This industry’s need for office space is expected to continue to grow.

零售

零售ers were facing the on-line shopping threat before Covid and it became severe during the lockdowns. 但也有WFH/WFA选项, there are now fewer workers in the office who are going out for lunch, 更少的人需要购物来保持他们的衣橱, less who have the need for dry cleaners and conveniences near the office.

通货膨胀

然后是通货膨胀. “暂时的”这个词变成暂时的了吗? 请继续关注. You would think the property sectors best positioned for this would be the ones with the shortest leases that can be raised the fastest. Hotels lease on a daily basis, self-storage months to a year, and apartments 6 months to a year. 办公室, retail and industrial are longer term, typically 3 to 5 years. CPI是指消费者价格指数，是通货膨胀的代表. CPI Adjustments written into leases as automatic rent increases based on inflation, were very common in leases in the 1970’s and 1980’s but then disappeared. 他们回来.

祝福在德州

我们应该庆幸我们有幸住在德克萨斯州. The Texas Workforce Commission just announced that employment in Texas just passed the high mark set in February 2020, 就在大流行之前. 国家的 失业率已经下降 to 5.2%, 然而, job creation in San Antonio has slowed the past few months.

总之, 2022 looks like it will be a continuation of the good markets and high demand that we have seen in 2021. 希望, the pandemic will fade into the back ground; hopefully the supply chain mess will ease up and disappear by year’s end; hopefully the labor shortage will become less of a problem, though this may be the hardest problem of all to solve; and hopefully you and your family will have a Prosperous and Safe Year 2022!!! IRC祝你一切顺利!